Probably the most asked question I get is, "When will the market “come back”?"
First of all, I’m not sure we want it to come back as it was, as it was so fraught with fraud and problems which led to the crash. And I’ve mentioned many times before that real estate is a local issue and needs to be evaluated based on local stats and considerations. We’re already seeing prices ease back up in Seaside, Salinas Monterey Highway, and Monterey.
But to give you an idea of what the experts are saying. According to the consensus of 92 economists and other housing prognosticators recently surveyed by MacroMarkets LLC, home prices will rise about 12% in the five years ending December 31, 2014. At the end of 2009 the index was down nearly 28% from its peak.
The predictions among the 92 participants swung the full spectrum of economic opinion. Joseph LaVorgan of Deutsche Bank projects home prices rising 37% by the end of 2014 while others including Anthony Sanders of George Mason University and Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co., see declines of nearly 18%. That is a 55 point spread!
Forces that will influence the direction of housing prices include these economic considerations:
- The post-tax credit environment
- Working through the nearly 4.5 million distressed residences
- The Fed's budget deficit going forward.
The latter has international implications as the European Union rustles with the credit woes of Greece, Portugal, Ireland and others.
Who would have figured that Greece could affect the value of US homes? But, in this global economic environment you know that the US is being called upon to help bail out governments that haven’t disciplined their own economies. The more the US Treasury is called on, the more taxing it will be on the US economy and its taxpayers. The greater the economic drag, the greater its impact on housing.
My Picks for the Week...
23800 FAIRFIELD PL, Carmel 93923 (Carmel)
$1,325,000 Beds: 4 beds Baths: 2|1 baths DOM: 6 MLS: 81028105
Views abound in this home above Monterey Bay. Peaks to the south and views of Monterey, Seaside, and across to Santa Cruz on clear days. Spacious master, separate living, family and dining. 3 separate decks all at the end of a quiet cul de sac. 3195 sf 1 acre check out photos on www.pattyrosscarmel.com
489 TOYON DR, Monterey 93940 (Monterey)
$689,000 Beds: 4 beds Baths: 3|0 baths DOM: 3 MLS: 81028892
Very spacious Toyon Heights home with separate living unit and 3 car garage. Features include new windows, hardwood floors, paver driveway, updated kitchen & baths, bonus workshop and/or office space. Very well maintained. 2275 sf 16,800 lot call for private showing 236-4513
38350 LAUREL SPRINGS RD, Carmel Valley 93924 (Carmel Valley)
$645,000 Beds: 1 beds Baths: 1|0 baths DOM: 12 MLS: 81027147
The Magic Kingdom - 40 acres of complete privacy, mature oaks & madrones, open meadows. Wonderful mountain views, well-built cabin in like-new condition. Energy self-sufficient property. Gently rolling meadow - ideal for construction of new home, horse barn, and paddocks. Locked security gate, video camera system on property. Located about 50 minutes' drive from Carmel. Live close to nature. 840 sf
1077 AMADOR AV, Seaside/Former Fort Ord/Sand City 93955 (Seaside/Former Fort Ord/Sand City)
$198,888 Beds: 2 beds Baths: 1|0 baths DOM: 4 MLS: 81028692
864 sf 5000 lot short sale
Source: Copyright Patty Ross, KRXA Radio Show 163 June 18, 2010
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