When will housing come back in California? Five experts offer their views

They are the questions on everyone's mind... Has the real estate market hit bottom? Is the real estate market going to get better? Worse? Stay the same? Is now the right time to buy? Sell? Wait?

So, when will housing come back in California? Five experts weigh in on the subject.

Although the steep decline of home prices in California ended in spring 2009, the weakness in the housing market after the expiration of federal tax credits for home buyers last year has led to some speculation as to whether the recovery is sustainable. 

Five experts, including Leslie Appleton-Young, the chief economist for the California Association of Realtors were asked to provide their view on the state of real estate and what they think is needed to get the housing market moving again.


•  In terms of home prices, the experts differed slightly with the majority predicting that home prices will remain flat throughout 2011.  Ms. Appleton-Young predicts home prices will rise 2 percent this year, while a foreclosure expert predicts housing prices to decline 5 percent in 2011.
•  According to Appleton-Young, there is little chance of home prices returning to their previous peak levels anytime soon. She said, “We are in a slow-moving recovery with prices stabilized at the moderate and low end. We are still seeing price attrition and price softening at the upper ends of the market.”  I can attest to that.
• California’s recovery will hinge on location, according to Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.  Areas between El Centro and Sacramento likely will not see a return to peak prices for a long time.  However, places like La Jolla, Laguna, Huntington Beach, Atherton, Palo Alto, the city of San Francisco, and Marin County could experience a return to their peak prices within the next five years, according to Mr. Green.  I would add Carmel, Monterey, Pacific Grove and Pebble Beach to that list as well.
• Foreclosure expert Bruce Norris of the Norris Group believes the market is being artificially boosted by government programs and is set to fall further this year.  Mr. Norris believes the demand for housing is most-needed for a sustainable recovery.
• California’s coastal markets will make a return once the job market improves, according to Emile Haddad, chief executive at FivePoint Communities Inc.  In turn, that will lift consumer confidence.  However, California’s inland areas are more likely to lag behind, and builders will have to reconsider the kind of product they offer in certain places.  

With that market info in mind, let’s take a look at some product we have around these parts, all looking good in terms of price.

18773 CACHAGUA RD. Carmel Valley – not on MLS yet- $2,995,000
This is a secure fenced communication satellite site. Extraordinary opportunity to own a piece of history. The Jamesburg Earth Station received the first images from the moon in 1969 and was a fully functional communications station operated by AT&T until 2002. The antenna, the accompanying 10,000 square foot secure structure and heliport are on a 103 acre parcel located in Carmel Valley approximately 25 miles from Carmel by the Sea and the Monterey Peninsula. The adjoining two parcels which consist of 46 acres of vacant land and 12 acres with a 3 bed 1 bath home plus a barn may be purchased with the Earth Station site.  160 acres total   There’s an online registration to view the property 1 time only on 2/26/11.  You'll need to call me for the details on this one! 

3265 MARTIN ROAD, Carmel MLS #: 81038995 $1,199,000 Beds: 3 Baths: 2.5 
Price just reduced $100K Fully remodeled 50's contemporary quality home, top of the line appliances, directly borders Carmel Mission Trail Preserve with expanse of open land. On quiet cul de sac with views of Pt. Lobos. Large lot almost half acre with plenty of privacy. Move in condition with hardwood floors & two cozy fireplaces. Bonus is plenty of outside decks with views.  SqFt: 1,488 Lot Size: 21,000 Sqft

517 12TH STREET, Pacific Grove MLS #: 80954886 $723,500 Beds: 4 Baths: 2 
This charming Victorian home is an historic landmark in PG. It has been extensively remodeled yet still maintains the original feel of the home with 100 year old virgin redwood floors, a quaint parlor and a wonderful upstairs porch with views of the ocean. Historic Preservation Award Winner! Short Sale, lender approved.  SqFt: 2,238 Lot Size: 4,300 Sqft

1313 ADAMS STREET, North Salinas MLS #: 81101895 $185,000 Beds: 3 Baths: 2 
This is a Probate Sale. Ready to Go! Nice size backyard with lots of potential. Would make great home or investment property  SqFt: 1,470 Lot Size: 7,000 Sqft

© Patty Ross,  KRXA Radio Show #191  January 21, 2011