The bursting of the housing bubble plunged the economy into a recession from which it has yet to fully recover. But economists say this could finally be the year that housing lifts us out of the doldrums. Just over half of economists surveyed by CNNMoney identified a housing recovery as the primary driver of economic growth this year.
The rest were split fairly evenly between consumer spending, increased domestic energy production and stimulus from the Federal Reserve as major growth drivers.
Homebuilding activity will likely remain the strongest growing component of the economy in 2013, after several years of excess supply, demand and supply conditions are now in much better balance.
Home sales rebounded to the strongest level in five years in 2012, as home building bounced back to levels not seen since early in the recession. Near record low mortgage rates, rising home prices and a drop in foreclosures have combined to bring buyers back to the market.
The national housing market made a strong rebound in 2012 and that positive trend is expected to continue in the New Year, according to RE/MAX Co-Founder and Chairman Dave Liniger. His 2013 Top 10 Predictions are revealed in a video presentation released recently.
Liniger says that although interest rates have been at historic lows, they have not been the driving force behind this recovery. There’s no single factor driving this market; it’s been a combination of low prices, low inventory, improving consumer confidence and a huge pent-up demand. That was true throughout 2012 and will continue to be true in 2013.
Many consumers now understand what real estate professionals have known for the last year, a number of related factors have combined to create a favorable opportunity for homebuyers and investors to purchase residential properties.
The 2013 situation is so unique that those of us who’ve worked in real estate for many years have never seen opportunities like this.
Dave Liniger’s Top 10 Real Estate Predictions for 2013 are:
1. More buyers and sellers come back to the market.
2. Homes sales will rise by 6-7 percent and prices rise by 3-4 percent.
3. The inventory of homes for sale will hit a bottom.
4. Higher priced homes begin to sell.
5. Distressed property numbers continue to fall.
6. Shadow inventory continues to fall.
7. The number of short sale closings will rise to a peak.
8. Record low mortgage rates rise slightly by year-end.
9. Lending remains tight.
10. Home affordability remains the best in years.
While Liniger feels that 2013 could be the best year in real estate in many years, he admits that the recovery is fragile and still faces some obstacles. In his video presentation, he states that tight lending, government regulation and the overall economy still have the potential to negatively impact housing.
However, he also believes that if housing can stay on the road to recovery, it’s possible that it can pull the rest of the economy along with it.
In recent years, Liniger has been a highly vocal advocate for the home buying and selling consumer, and real estate professionals. He has supported reforms aimed at helping troubled homeowners avoid foreclosure and streamlining the Short Sale process.
In October, his open letter to candidates Obama and Romney called for a continuation of mortgage interest deductions, an extension of the Debt Relief Act and more reasonable regulations on mortgage lending. The Fiscal Cliff Agreement left the deductions mostly intact and extended the Debt Relief Act until the end of 2013.
These moves support the American dream of home ownership, help distressed families avoid foreclosure and promote a sustainable housing recovery.
© KRXA Radio Show #240 February 1, 2013
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