Thursday, November 7, 2013

MontereyPeninsula – what’s happening locally in the real estate market

Since the market downturn, it has recovered over half of the market value lost during that time, and it's still climbing, although the rate of recovery has begun to slow. The ratio of pending sales to homes on the market has declined in recent months, leaving us with a more "normal" market.
For those who are waiting to buy when we hit bottom, I'm sorry to say the "bottom" was reached and passed over a year ago. Deals are still there to be had, but not on the same wholesale basis as they were.
One contributing factor to our market's recovery is the disappearance of "distressed" properties. Those opportunities have been fading fast, and thankfully will no longer be the same major factor they recently were in our market.
The following summaries are snapshots of the individual housing markets for each of our ten peninsula market areas:
Carmel - Carmel price recovery is very good. It also has an excellent selection of homes for sale with very few distressed properties any longer. This makes comparative pricing analysis more representative of true values.

South Coast - (Carmel Highlands to Big Sur). Pending sales are up with only one distressed sale. Demand has improved for this characteristically slow area, with a good many high-end and waterfront sales being made.

Carmel Valley - Activity is comparable to levels in Carmel, but inventory is higher with more selection and a lot of diversity. The average sales price has made a 15% leap since summer.

Pebble Beach - Average prices have little relevance in Pebble Beach where only one sale can raise the average half a million dollars. However, that said, demand is good and inventory is stable.

Monterey - Inventory is holding well in spite of high demand for good values. Buyers can find homes in quality neighborhoods at good prices. Average home prices are up slightly and distressed properties are fewer.

Pacific Grove - One of the best selling towns with a quick turnover of quality properties. In spite of that, it has still maintained a reasonable inventory to provide home buyers a good selection.

Del Rey Oaks - A small community with affordable homes that don't stay on the market long. Currently there are four homes available for sale, all under 600K compared to six pendings, four of which are distressed sales.

Seaside/Sand City - Inventory and pending sales are identical to what they were this summer. However, the average home price has risen by 4% during that time. Distressed homes are down by more than 50%, a good sign.

Marina - Sales activity in Marina has cooled somewhat. More homes are available for sale than there are in escrow - a nice change. Distressed sales are down slightly and the average sales price is up by nearly 10% over last summer.

Monterey-Salinas Highway - This is such a mixed area it is hard to draw any conclusions that are relevant to the entire market here. All indicators are down from summer except for total listings which remain stable. 


TRENDS AT A GLANCE
SEP 2013
PREVIOUS MONTH
YEAR-OVER YEAR
Median Home Price
+3.3%
$417,500
$404,000
+26.5%
$330,000
Average Sales Price
+13.1%
$677,605
$599,105
+34.4%
$504,022
No. of Homes Sold
-4.1%
210
219
-6.7%
225
Pending Properties
-13.2%
409
471
-46.3%
762
Foreclosures Sold
+27.3%
14
11
-48.1%
27
Short Sales Sold
-25.0%
33
44
-48.4%
64
Active Listings
+2.8%
622
605
+3.8%
599
Active Foreclosures
-12.5%
21
24
-22.2%
27
Active Short Sales
+46.2%
19
13
-52.5%
40
Sales Price vs. List Price
-1.4%
99.3%
100.7%
-0.1%
99.3%
Average Days on Market
+31.1%
56
42
-11.2%
63

 So you can see by the numbers the market has shifted, and things are looking brighter.

PENINSULA HOME SALES ACTIVITY BY COMMUNITY
LOCAL   CURRENT   PENDING----PERCENT HOMES   ACTIVITY   AVERAGE   SALES: LlST PRICE INVENTORY  
AREA   LISTINGS   SALES----DISTRESSED SOLD'   INDICATOR" SALES PRICE'   DIFFERENTIAL   INDEX'"  

Carmel                    149     19   0%   125   13%   $1,489,887   7%   6.0 months  

South Coast           49        7   14%   19   14%   $1,894,222   15%   13.0 months  

Carmel Valley       125       17   24%   79   14%   $1,012,362   5%   10.0 months  

Pebble Beach       91        12   8%   51   13%   $1,912,792   5%   8.0 months  

Monterey              74        24   33%   114   32%   $591,527   1%   3.0 months  

Pacific Grove         61        24   21%   87   39%   $701,212   3%   3.0 months  

Del Rey Oaks          9          40%   11   55%   $451,045   0%   2.0 months  

Seaside                                    62      24%   88   53%   $368,875   0%   2.0 months  

Marina                  24   13   46%   51   55%   $389,112   1%   2.0 months  

MSH                      101   35   40%   106   32%   $681,878   3%   4.0 months  

*April 1, 2013· September 30, 2013 (6 months)
Average home prices are continuing to rise across the board.  We are gradually recovering what was lost during the downturn. Overall sales activity is leveling off however, from the flurry of activity we have been seeing since the recovery began. The ratio of sales to inventory has declined to a 25% activity level (one house out of every four listings is a pending sale), Carmel and Pebble Beach are the slowest at 13% each.
Seaside & Marina are the highest at 55%. This is a fairly typical disparity from one side of Carmel hill to the other.
It is beginning to become what I would characterize as a more "normal" market  throughout  the peninsula. Inventory has remained constant since the first of the year even though sales have fluctuated.
Generally speaking, price increases since the recovery began have brought us back up to 2008-2009 levels. So the "bottom" is fading fast into the rear-view mirror.   With demand appearing to be slowing somewhat, I would expect the pressure on prices to do the same. However, the wild card is the national economy. Where it goes will greatly affect our market.


 
 
24805 VALLEY WAY, Carmel 93923
 
Class:
Single Family Residential
List Date:
07/19/2013
Beds:
2
List Price:
$799,000
Baths:
1 (1/0)
Sale Price:
SqFt:
1,012 (Assessor)
HOA Fee:
Lot Size:
4,100 Sqft (Assessor)
X-street:
Lower Trail
Elem Dist:
Carmel Unified
High Dist:
Carmel Unified
 
List Agent:
Patty Ross
List Office:
Sotheby's Int'l Realty-Rancho
 
Direction:
Carpenter to Lower Trail- Corner
 
Remarks:
Smart and sophisticated, this Mid Century modern home was designed by a protégé of Frank Lloyd Wright. The 2/1 has been remodeled with wood laminate floors, granite counters, wood burning fireplace with gas starter, and built in stereo speakers. Peek of ocean and walls of glass bring Carmel woods inside completing this close-to-town gem.

 The Friends of Homeless Women are sponsoring a fundraiser brunch and silent auction to help reduce risk to homeless women on the Monterey Peninsula.  This event will be Nov. 17th from 10 am to 2 pm at the Elks Lodge, 150 Mar Vista Drive, Monterey.  Tickets are $20 for adults and $5 for 8 yrs and under.  For information or tickets call Sara Myers at 831-324-4664 or Jackie Burns 831-372-7432.  Donations are tax deductible.
The Problem:  
According to the most recent census data, there are approximately 350 women who are homeless on the Monterey Peninsula on any given day.  This is an increase of 9% since census data were collected in 2011.  Over the course of a year, the number of women projected to be homeless on the Peninsula increases to 876.
Shelter programs such as IHELP (for men) or Dorothy's Place in Salinas do not exist for homeless women on the Monterey Peninsula.  Homeless service providers continue to face ever-deepening cuts from federal and state funds.  In fact, single homeless women or homeless seniors are not a focus for federal support.
Homeless women need immediate harm reduction, particularly those who are older and do not fit existing profiles for emergency shelter.  To accomplish this, homeless service provider agencies and other nonprofit organizations serving homeless women would benefit from the immediate support of community partners to assist them in increasing awareness about this issue, and in raising funds to enhance options for shelter and service.
The Fund for Homeless Women is a newly established Field of Interest Fund of the Community Foundation for Monterey County.  The Fund's resources are earmarked to increase services for women who are homeless on the Monterey Peninsula.  It has two components: Endowment (for future, long-term goals) and Spendable (for immediate needs).  All contributions are tax deductible.
Funds collected in 2013 will be disbursed in January 2014 through a competitive grant making process that focuses on Harm Reduction.  An advisory panel that will consist of the Fund's co-leaders and key Community Foundation staff will oversee the process and disbursement of funds.
The lead organizer and fundraiser for the Fund for Homeless Women is Rev. Michael Reid, Associate Rector, St. Mary's by the Sea Episcopal Church.  A coalition of fifty women who comprise the Friends of Homeless Women are involved in producing fundraising events.  These women from Monterey, Pacific Grove, Seaside, Marina and Carmel represent a broad spectrum of nonprofit organizations, faith communities, and government agencies.  
Patty Ross
Sotheby's International Realty

 

No comments: